One Man Conglomerate, #05. However, the job market will shrink significantly. [PART II]

The following is English version of Chapter 2 of ‘One Man Conglomerate’, published in August 2023 by Do-Jeon, Marcus, Jeong.

 

2nd Chat: How will our lives changes?

 

#05. However, the job market will shrink significantly.

 

[02] Of course, new jobs will also be created.

 

If there are jobs that disappear due to generative AI, including ChatGPT, there will naturally be new jobs that are created as a result. However, unfortunately, most of the newly emerging jobs are related to artificial intelligence. And this will be broadly divided into five categories.

❶ First of all, these are the jobs created by companies that develop artificial intelligence models. The jobs provided by these companies are mainly ① jobs that develop and operate artificial intelligence (mainly engineers or technicians) and ② jobs that support them, similar to general companies (e.g., marketing, sales, finance, human resources, etc.) General affairs, customer service, IT, compliance, risk management, audit, legal affairs, strategy, etc.) However, there is a possibility that jobs ① will be replaced by AI in the future. And most of the jobs in number ② are likely to utilize experienced workers. And, with smart AI, job creation effects cannot be expected as much as in the past.

❷ The second are jobs created in fields (or industries) that apply artificial intelligence technology. This will mainly be the 15 (16 including AI) technology fields related to the 4th Industrial Revolution, but other fields where the value of products (or goods or services) are improved by applying AI technology can also be included. However, the jobs created in this field are likely to be primarily for AI experts.

❸ And the third are jobs created by companies that can create economic added value in connection with artificial intelligence technology. For example, jobs created by restaurant reservation apps linked to ChatGPT’s plug-in service (e.g., job creation effects due to sales expansion) are created. This can include various kinds of business models.

❹ Fourth are jobs created by creators (including YouTubers) or large one-person companies that utilize various generative AI models. In the former case, it is highly likely that it will not be a traditional type of job (Nine to Six, full-time, etc.), but in the latter case, it is highly likely to bring job creation effects to various areas of business.

❺ Lastly, these are jobs provided in sectors that need to check or support artificial intelligence technology. Organizations performing this role will mainly be organized in the public sector. However, by law, it may be mandatory for each company to organize a dedicated team to perform this role. However, the number of jobs created as a result is unlikely to be economically significant.

For reference, in the report of the World Economic Forum (WEF) mentioned earlier, the top 15 occupations expected to increase by 2027 are as follows. Of course, this is written from a global perspective. So this is different from our situation.

(1)Agricultural equipment operators(농업장비 관련 기사), (2)Heavy truck and bus drivers(대형 트럭 및 버스 운전기사), (3)Vocational education teachers(직업교육 교사), (4)Mechanics and machinery repairers(기구 및 기계 수리공), (5)Business development professionals(비즈니스 개발 전문가), (6)Building frame and related trades workers(건축 프레임 및 관련 종사자), (7)University and higher education teachers(대학 등 고등 교육 교수 및 강사), (8)Electrotechnology engineers(전기 또는 전자 공학 기술자), (9)Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders(판재 및 구조용 금속 작업자, 금형 및 용접공), (10)Special education teachers(특수 교육 교사), (11)Light truck or delivery services drivers(경트럭 또는 배달 서비스 운전자), (12)Digital transformation specialists(디지털 트랜스포메이션 전문가), (13)Construction laborers(건설 노동자), (14)Sustainability specialists, (15)Digital marketing and strategy specialists(디지털 마케팅 전문가)

Once again, it’s important to note that this is based on the entire world, so it may not be applicable to our country. For example, if autonomous driving is commercialized in 5 years, the number of truck drivers in (2) may actually decrease. So, you can use it for reference only.

In any case, the important thing is that among the new jobs, there will not be many quality jobs (mainly full-time jobs) in the traditional sense. Therefore, it is very likely that non-regular workers (mainly contract workers and dispatched workers) will increase significantly.

 

Image: developed by Midjourney

 

 

[03] But many of the unemployed will be jobless.

 

As mentioned above, it is highly likely that the number of jobs that disappear in the long term will be higher than the number of jobs that emerge. This is because new jobs are mainly related to AI, but disappearing jobs are not. In other words, numerous jobs related to our daily lives will disappear. Also, very quickly…

And, as mentioned earlier, new employment will also decline significantly. So, it will soon emerge as a serious social problem. In particular, we are still in a situation where we are not out of the shock of COVID-19. And we are in a very difficult situation due to the extreme low birth rate, the fastest aging population in the world, and failed economic policies (especially real estate policies). In addition, as a weak country, we must look at the faces of the powerful countries in the unstable international situation. This is because the country may disappear if done wrong.

In this situation, if involuntary unemployment increases due to AI, the national economy will definitely suffer a major shock. This is because the unemployed are likely to remain unemployed for a long time. Unlike in the past, it is difficult to get a job again, and there are no easy options for self-employment. Since the number of self-employed workers will continue to decline due to high rents, low birth rate, and aging population, the possibility of employment increasing across the entire economic structure is close to zero.

As a result, ordinary people will be forced into an even worse, low-quality multi-job environment and will suffer. And, the polarization phenomenon between the working class and the non-working class (those with assets inherited from their parents’ generation or those with jobs that cannot be replaced by AI right now) will deepen further. So tax revenues will decrease significantly. And to overcome this situation, the government and politicians may increase debt instead of increasing taxes. However, if this happens, the economy will become more endangered.

 

 

[04] So the population decline will further accelerate.

 

Our country’s population decline is currently very serious. So, if we are not careful, our country may disappear from history. However, politicians and businessmen looking at this are relaxed. Is it because they have accumulated a lot of wealth and most of their children are foreigners (or have multiple nationalities), so there is no need to live in the country?

In this situation, there are people who say, ‘If the birth rate decreases and the population decreases, our country will become more relaxed.’ In other words, the logic is that if the population decreases, jobs and housing (specifically apartments) will remain, so life will be more relaxed.

When I first heard this, I thought they were pro-Japanese or Japanese. It’s just frustrating. This is because ‘population’, and more specifically, ‘population structure’, is a very important economic variable in our country’s economic structure.

 

Table 8. Korea’s population forecast

Cls.	1960	2023	2070
Population(person)	25,012,374	51,558,034	37,655,867
Birth rate(%)	6.0	0.73	1.21
Elderly population ratio(65 years older)	2.9%	18.4%	46.4%

Source: Statistics Korea

 

Anyway, one of the causes of population decline in our country is ‘jobs.’ Traditionally, a stable job is an important driver of marriage and childbirth. However, if these jobs decrease rapidly due to the development of AI technology, the phenomenon of avoiding childbirth will naturally spread faster and more strongly. This is because, in a situation where the future has become more uncertain, having a child is a privilege that only the non-working class who have inherited wealth can afford.

 

[ Attention ]

The above article excludes footnotes and details, unlike the actual book.
Please read the following post for details of “#03”

위 글은 정도전 작가가 2023년 8월에 출간한 ‘1인 대기업(One Man Conglomerate)’의 챕터2 영문 버전입니다.

 

참고: 1인 대기업 131 페이지 캡처본